如何降低自然灾害损失

COMMERCE has long been at the mercy of the elements. The British East India Company was almost strangled at birth when it lost several of its ships in a storm. But the toll is rising. The world has been so preoccupied with the man-made catastrophes of subprime mortgages and sovereign debt that it may not have noticed how much economic mayhem nature has wreaked.

With earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand, floods in Thailand and Australia and tornadoes in America, last year was the costliest on record for natural disasters.自古以来,商业的发展就受制于多种因素。英国东印度公司刚刚成立时,一场风暴使其损失了数艘轮船,差点将其扼杀在襁褓之中。灾难还在继续。世界各国绞尽脑汁想解决如次贷危机和主权债务这样的人为灾难时,却忽略了自然灾害引起的经济混乱。日本和新西兰地震摇撼,泰国和澳大利亚洪水泛滥,美国龙卷风肆虐,去年是自然灾害有记录以来人们付出代价最大的一年。

This trend is not, as is often thought, a result of climate change. There is little evidence that big hurricanes come ashore any more often than, say, a century ago. But disasters now extract a far higher price, for the simple reason that the worlds population and output are becoming concentrated in vulnerable cities near earthquake faults, on river deltas or along tropical coasts (see article).

Those risks will rise as the wealth of Shanghai and Kolkata comes to rival that of London and New York. Meanwhile, interconnected supply chains guarantee that when one region is knocked out by an earthquake or flood, the reverberations are global.自然灾害频发的这种趋势并不是人们通常认为的气候变化的结果,并没有确凿的证据证明飓风比,比如说,一个世纪前更频繁地登陆。但是现在的自然灾害造成的损失却远远大过以前,原因很简单,因为世界人口和生产生活都越来越集中在不堪一击的城市,这些城市或处于地震带,或位于江河三角洲,或居于热带海边。随着上海和加尔各答的财富渐渐可以与伦敦和纽约相匹敌,这种损失的可能性就更大了。同时,相互联系的供应链发达,某一地区发生地震或洪灾,产生的影响将是全球性的。

This may sound grim, but the truth is more encouraging. When poor people leave the countryside for shantytowns on hillsides or river banks they are exposed to mudslides and floods, but also have access to better-paying, more productive work. Richer societies may lose more property to disaster but they are also better able to protect their people.

Indeed, although the economic toll from disasters has risen, the death toll has not, despite the worlds growing population.这听起来可能有点可怕,现实却可以鼓舞人心。随着穷人走出农村,住进位于山腰或河堤的贫民区,他们一方面更易于受泥石流和洪灾的影响,另一方面也有了收入更高更多产的工作。比较富裕的国家可能因自然灾害失去更多财富,但同时也能更好地保护自己人民。实际上,尽管自然灾害造成更多经济损失,但考虑到不断增长的世界人口,死亡人数并没有增多。

Preparing for the worst做好最坏的打算

The right role for government, then, is not to resist urbanisation but to minimise the consequences when disaster strikes. This means, first, getting priorities right. At present, too large a slice of disaster budgets goes on rescue and repair after a tragedy, and not enough on beefing up defences beforehand.

Cyclone shelters are useless if they fall into disrepair. A World Bank study recommends using schools and other bits of normal public infrastructure in disaster-protection plans, so that the kit and buildings are properly maintained.那么,政府的正确角色就不是阻止社会城镇化,而是要在自然灾害来临时尽量减少损失。这就要求政府,第一,正确确定优先顺序。现阶段,政府在救援和灾后重建方面的投入太大,而在事先防护方面做的却不够。如果为躲避飓风的庇护所长年失修,那也就毫无用处。世界银行的一项研究建议在自然灾害保护计划中使用学校及其他正常公共基础设施,这样那些成套的设施和建筑就可以适当地保留下来。

Second, government should be fiercer when private individuals and firms, left to pursue their own self-interest, put all of society at risk. For example, in their quest for growth, developers and local governments have eradicated sand dunes, mangrove swamps, reefs and flood plains that formed natural buffers between people and nature.

Preserving or restoring more of this natural capital would make cities more resilient, much as increased financial capital does for the banking system. In the Netherlands dykes have been pushed out and flood plains restored to give rivers more room to flood.第二,如果出现个人或企业为追寻自身利益而临阵脱逃,将全社会置于危险之中的情况,政府应该给予更加严厉的处罚。例如,为了追求增长效益,开发商和地方政府让出了充当人类和自然之间缓冲器的沙丘、红树湿地、暗礁区、泛洪区。保存好尽可能多的自然财富会使城市在面临自然灾害时更有弹性,就像较多的财政资金可以增加银行系统的弹性一样。在荷兰,人们填补了沟渠,保存了泛洪区,这样泛滥的河水就有更大的空间奔腾翻滚。

Third, governments must eliminate the perverse incentives their own policies produce. Politicians are often under pressure to limit the premiums insurance companies can charge. The result is to underprice the risk of living in dangerous areaswhich is one reason that so many expensive homes await the next hurricane on Floridas coast.

When governments rebuild homes repeatedly struck by floods and wildfires, they are subsidising people to live in hazardous places.第三,政府必须抛弃其政策中有悖常理的刺激措施。政客们常迫于压力限制企业可以索赔的保险费用,结果低估了危险地区的生存风险这也是为什么那么多高档家庭都期待下一个飓风登临弗罗里达海岸的原因之一。政府重建那些被洪水和野火一再摧毁的房屋,他们是在资助人们生活在危险地带。、
For their part companies need to operate on the assumption that a disaster will strike at some point.

This means preparing contingency plans, reinforcing supply chains and even, costly though this might be, having reserve suppliers lined up: there is no point in having a perfectly efficient supply chain if it can be snapped whenever nature takes a turn for the worst. Disasters are inevitable; their consequences need not be.
对于企业来说,需要时刻有危机意识,好像自然灾害随时可能来临。这意味着企业要准备意外事件计划,加固供应链,甚至,尽管这可能花费很多,要有足够的保存供应商:如果一条供应链在发生自然灾害时一碰即碎,那么也就没有必要准备这样的完全有效的供应链。自然灾害是不可避免的,但却可以避免出现灾难性后果。